How the Internet Will Change Society
by Theresa Lütge-Smith
Subtle changes in the general tenor of predictions about the
future of the Internet surfaced over the past year. In some cases
a more ominous and somber tone is replacing the unbridled enthusiasm
of the pre-dotcom crash years.
Major factors influencing future trends include current global political
turmoil and prevailing concerns about privacy infringements and Internet
control issues that are fast becoming a reality. On the other hand,
there are always alternative views and enthusiastic visions of ways
in which the Internet can benefit society. For example, William Draves,
one of the foremost authorities in online learning, and President
of the Learning Resources Network (LERN), states that online learning
is on the increase. "In the 21st century, online learning will constitute
50% of all learning and education."
The ambivalence about ways in which the Internet can affect society
in the future should not come as a surprise, considering the history
of technological innovations. Each new technological innovation brings
with it developments that both benefit and create new problems for
society. The initial creation of the Internet was seen as a definite
boon for society - a means for easy and immediate global communications
and information sharing; and a general feeling of a new age of cultural
and national interaction. While this perception still remains, many
have begun to realize that the future of society and the Internet
is more complex than original idealistic perceptions may suggest.
There are many predictions of the future of the Internet that are
relatively easy to deduce. These include predictions that the Internet
will become faster, more user friendly, and will increase in terms
of broadband and media richness. However, other aspects of the Internet
and its affect on society as a whole are only now beginning to surface.
One of the most important of these, in terms of the affect on society,
is security and privacy. Privacy is already a hot issue when it comes
to surveillance, especially with regard to recent governmental and
corporate developments. Privacy may become even more of a problematic
factor in the future.
An expert in the field like Nathaniel S. Borenstein, software strategist
and author, predicts that the negative future aspect of the Internet
includes 'massive surveillance of citizens by the government and by
large corporations.' According to Borenstein, other negative effects
on society will contribute to the globalization of culture and the
gradual destruction of minority cultures and languages. "It will continue
to empower a growing number of scam artists who use fraudulent information
to get money from the innocent and gullible," he says. This does not
however, mean that the future is all negative. "Access to information
will become easy and accessible. Nobody will ever lack for pictures
of Britney Spears." One of the affects of the Web will be to ameliorate
global tension. Bornstein adds, "The growing homogenization of culture
might help to moderate the worst excesses of ignorant religious fundamentalists,
despite the obvious fact that we're currently living through a time
of violent backlash from those groups."
Some past predictions about the Internet have come true, albeit with
some unexpected twists. E-mail for example was predicted to become
the killer application of the Internet, which it has become, but with
a twist in the form of spam, which threatens the existence of this
medium. Broadband was also touted as the way to greater Web accessibility
and action, but larger companies tend to dominate it through a monopoly
of the rules and procedures about broadband delivery. According to
many experts and observers, the initial idea of society benefiting
from the Internet is beginning to take on an Orwellian tone of dominance.
This is evident when considering the future of Internet entrepreneurship.
The Future Of Small Business
One area that many predicted would benefit greatly from the growth
of the Internet was small business. The general consensus was that
at last small business could compete on equal footing with corporate
giants that notoriously dominated the market place. While there is
still a viable place for small business online, some believe that
larger players have yet again succeeded in dominating the field, and
that this influence on the marketplace has set the tone for the future.
According to Professor Borenstein, "Fundamentally, Internet technology
is fairly neutral; it could have in fact been used to level the playing
field and enable small businesses to be more competitive. But big
business has cleverly and effectively come to dominate the levers
of control on Internet technology, with the result that the Internet
has become a tool to further increase the advantages of large business
enterprises."
The culprits are, according to Borenstein, the large monopolies and
governments who will determine the nature and range of business on
the Internet. "An informal alliance of a very few companies, such
as AOL, Microsoft, and Visa, has been able to so dominate the rules-setting
process as to produce an Internet far more conducive to their interests
than anyone else's. The most obvious possible counterweight to their
domination would be governments, particularly the US government; but
most of today's governments suffer from a combination of poor understanding
of the issues and enormous sympathy and trust for big business. This
has led them to completely abdicate their possible role as defenders
of the little guy. For the best imaginable example, look at the sad
history of ICANN and its current imperial arrogance."
Part
2: Commercialism, Privacy And Humanism
|
Printer
Friendly Version